Monday Espresso

 

 

Last week, the ISM Manufacturing PMI index for September was published and came in at 47.8%, indicating a contraction of the manufacturing sector. However, the US Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 136,000 in September and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest level in 50 years.

On Wednesday October 2, the US announced new tariffs on a list of imports from the EU, total worth of $7.5bn, covering a diverse range of products such as aircraft components, whiskies, sweaters etc.

Hong Kong retail sales figure for August was released on Wednesday, which dropped by 23%YoY and has been falling for 7 consecutive months.

Also on Wednesday, the UK Parliament published proposals to be included in Brexit deal, including replacing Irish backstop with an all-island regulatory zone to avoid a hard border. However, the proposals were rejected by the European Parliament President on Friday.

  The US CPI for September will be announced on Thursday October 10, with an expectation of 1.80% YoY.

UK GDP growth will also be published on Thursday October 10, with an expectation of 0.00% MoM.

+0.18*

-1.0     A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.

0.0       A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.

+1.0   A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.

*as at latest realignment 30/09/19

Notice:

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.