Monday Espresso

On Thursday August 29, China said it will not retaliate immediately against the latest increase in US tariffs. Global equity markets rallied on this news as it signalled that China may be changing its strategy and is more open to talks with the US.

In a bid to secure Brexit by October 31, deal or no deal, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called for the suspension of the parliament beginning 9 September for five weeks. MPs opposed to a no deal Brexit are considering legislative action to stop a no deal Brexit and a possible no confidence vote before the parliament gets suspended.

The German economy is on the brink of recession as business confidence and GDP growth plummet. The government is considering a fiscal stimulus to revive the economy but no details have been shared. German 10 year bond yields continue to remain in negative territory.

A record number of 80,000 fires have been reported in the Amazon rainforest as deforestation continues at a record rate. The rainforest currently generates 20% of all the oxygen on Earth and its extinction could have catastrophic implication on the global climate. Leaders around the world have called on the Brazilian government to act and manage this crisis.

  US Non-farm payroll employment data will be released on Friday September 6, with an expectation of 155,000 new jobs created for the month of August.

On Tuesday September 3, UK construction PMI will be announced with an expectation of 45.9, signalling a contraction in the sector.

+0.59*

-1.0     A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.

0.0       A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.

+1.0   A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.

*as at latest realignment 30/08/19

Notice:

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.