Weekly Espresso

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The US Commerce Department estimated a gross domestic product growth for April-June quarter at a 6.6% annualised growth. Which now lifts US GDP above pre-pandemic levels.

The US has raised inflation expectations in 2022 due to continuing supply shortages and increased freight rates. Personal consumption expenditures price index expected to rise to 4% in the third quarter and 4.1% in the fourth, double the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

German business expectations fell sharply in August as supply chain disruptions and concerns surrounding the resurgence of COVID-19 infections. The business climate index produced by the Ifo Institute fell to 99.4 in August from 100.8 in the previous month.

The ECB published revised forward guidance to incorporate the findings of its strategy review, which altered its primary policy target to make it more tolerant of above-target inflation. The new wording states that interest rates will not rise until the ECB forecasts that inflation will reach its 2% target and price growth persists durably.

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German CPI data is to be released on Monday August 30th , expected 3.9% YoY

U.S Nonfarms Payrolls data for August to be released September Friday 3rd

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-1.0     A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.

0.0       A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.

+1.0   A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.

*as at latest realignment 13/08/21

Notice:

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.Open document settingsOpen publish panel

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