Monday Espresso

UK inflation slowed more sharply than expected following a 0.02% drop in inflation which now brings year on year inflation to 1.9%, just under the Bank of England target rate of inflation. 

China’s economy slowed more than expected in July due to tough new virus restrictions introduced at the end of the previous month and persistent supply chain constraints undermining consumer confidence.

The price of oil fell by more than 2% on Thursday, as the dollar jumped to a nine-month high against the euro on the prospect of an asset taper by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year.

U.S. initial unemployment claims have dropped for a fourth straight week to 348,000 for the week ended August 14th, the lowest figure seen since the beginning of the pandemic.

U.K consumer price index data to be released on Wednesday August 18th, expected 2.0% YoY.

U.K average earnings index data to be released on Tuesday August 17th, expected increase of 7.1% YoY.

-1.0     A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.

0.0       A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.

+1.0   A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.

*as at latest realignment 13/08/21

Notice:

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.