Monday Espresso

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased tensions in their OPEC standoff regarding production policy for the foreseeable future. This leaves markets in limbo as oil continues its inflationary surge above $75 a barrel.

The United States June non-farm payroll has overshot expectations by adding 150,000 more jobs than was expected on the data released on 2nd July 2021. Further supporting the recovery narrative seen across developed economies.

IHS Markit’s final composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, seen as a good gauge of economic health, jumped to 59.5 last month from May’s 57.1, its highest level since June 2006.

The EU has agreed on Wednesday a ceasefire with the United Kingdom in a post Brexit dispute relating to shipping certain meat products from Britain to Northern Ireland.

The interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia is due to be announced on Tuesday 6th July, with expectations for it to remain consistent with previous announcements.

US jobless data for June is to be released on Thursday 8th July with the expectation for this number to decrease in comparison to previous months following the post-covid recovery.

-1.0     A score of -1.0 indicates an extremely poor economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios away from equities during such periods.

0.0       A score of 0 indicates a neutral economic outlook with almost equal probability of positive and negative returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer maintains a balance between equities and other asset classes during such periods.

+1.0   A score of +1.0 indicates an extremely positive economic outlook, which is accompanied by a high probability of positive returns in risky asset classes like equities. The Risk Barometer tilts our portfolios towards equities during such periods.

*as at latest realignment 30/06/21

Notice:

The performance of each asset class is represented by certain Exchange Traded Funds available to UK investors and expressed in GBP terms selected by Copia Capital Management to represent that asset class, as reported at previous Thursday 4:30pm UK close. Reference to a particular asset class does not represent a recommendation to seek exposure to that asset class. This information is included for comparison purposes for the period stated, but is not an indicator of potential maximum loss for other periods or in the future.